TakeFreePoints.com

"Always take the free points"

Back to Plays

Aaron Holiday

AST

OVER 2.50
Medium Confidence +125

Vegas Line

2.50

Player Average

1.63

Season: 1.27 | L5: 2.00

Deviation

+0.87

68% signal

Sample Size

15

games played

💡 Why OVER?

Vegas set the line 0.87 points BELOW where this player typically performs (1.63)

→ They expect the player to overperform → Bet OVER

Player averages 1.63

Weighted 50/50: Season (1.27) + Last 5 games (2.00)

Vegas line is 2.50

Small 0.87-point gap

Medium confidence signal

Based on 15 games, std dev 0.93

Visual Breakdown

Season Average 1.27
Last 5 Games Average 2.00
Vegas Line 2.50
Bookmaker

betmgm

Game Time

Dec 06, 07:40 PM

Analysis Created

Dec 06, 02:25 PM