"Always take the free points"
Total Plays
249 High / 1678 MediumGraded Plays
678W - 1204LWin Rate
⚠️ Below 50%Total Profit
-6.3% ROIMost profitable patterns in our model
Optimal Play: High confidence UNDER bets on AST with 1.5+σ signals
Average Odds
Average Odds
| Level | Record | Win Rate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 84-159 | 34.6% | $-193.59 | -8.0% |
| Medium | 594-1045 | 36.2% | $-999.54 | -6.1% |
| Stat | Record | Win Rate | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| AST | 148-229 | 39.3% | $-176.18 |
| REB | 158-260 | 37.8% | $-255.10 |
| FG3M | 133-238 | 35.8% | $-345.61 |
| PTS | 239-477 | 33.4% | $-416.24 |
Does higher confidence signal translate to better profits?
| Signal Strength | Plays | Record | Win % | Profit | ROI | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1.5+σ
Strongest |
49 | 22-27 | 44.9% | +$52.99 | 10.8% | 💰 Profitable |
| 1.0-1.5σ | 211 | 68-143 | 32.2% | $-271.19 | -12.9% | ↓ Negative |
| 0.75-1.0σ | 515 | 185-330 | 35.9% | $-261.91 | -5.1% | ↓ Negative |
|
0.5-0.75σ
Weakest |
1107 | 403-704 | 36.4% | $-713.02 | -6.4% | ↓ Negative |
Note: Profitability matters more than win rate. A 48% win rate with favorable odds can be more profitable than a 52% win rate with poor odds.
| Player | Record | Win % | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jusuf Nurkić | 9-4 | 69.2% | $124.00 |
| Josh Hart | 7-2 | 77.8% | $107.50 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 6-3 | 66.7% | $86.00 |
| Anthony Davis | 6-2 | 75.0% | $83.60 |
| Amen Thompson | 6-2 | 75.0% | $80.00 |
| Ben Sheppard | 5-0 | 100.0% | $74.30 |
| Grayson Allen | 5-2 | 71.4% | $68.30 |
| Santi Aldama | 7-7 | 50.0% | $67.00 |
| Desmond Bane | 6-4 | 60.0% | $66.70 |
| Austin Reaves | 9-7 | 56.2% | $61.91 |
| Player | Record | Win % | Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keldon Johnson | 0-16 | 0.0% | $-160.00 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 1-12 | 7.7% | $-100.00 |
| Brandon Ingram | 1-11 | 8.3% | $-90.00 |
| Cam Spencer | 2-12 | 14.3% | $-86.00 |
| Josh Okogie | 1-10 | 9.1% | $-84.50 |
| Anthony Edwards | 1-9 | 10.0% | $-77.00 |
| Anthony Black | 2-10 | 16.7% | $-76.20 |
| Bam Adebayo | 1-9 | 10.0% | $-75.00 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 1-8 | 11.1% | $-62.50 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 3-11 | 21.4% | $-60.60 |
Which bookmakers provide the best value?
| Bookmaker | Plays | Record | Win Rate | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| betonlineag | 61 | 28-33 | 45.9% | $47.70 | 7.8% |
| betmgm | 74 | 33-41 | 44.6% | $3.64 | 0.5% |
| williamhill_us | 24 | 10-14 | 41.7% | $-7.14 | -3.0% |
| fanatics | 160 | 69-91 | 43.1% | $-40.48 | -2.5% |
| betrivers | 26 | 10-16 | 38.5% | $-49.10 | -18.9% |
| draftkings | 64 | 21-43 | 32.8% | $-166.69 | -26.0% |
| fanduel | 219 | 88-131 | 40.2% | $-334.55 | -15.3% |
| bovada | 1254 | 419-835 | 33.4% | $-646.50 | -5.2% |
Track how your bankroll has grown over time
| Date | Daily P/L | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | $-171.73 | Loss |
| 2025-12-07 | $-203.19 | Loss |
| 2025-12-06 | $-201.14 | Loss |
| 2025-12-05 | $-29.09 | Loss |
| 2025-12-02 | +$109.38 | 🔥 Great Day |
| 2025-12-01 | $-632.74 | Loss |
| 2025-11-30 | $-15.49 | Loss |
| 2025-11-29 | $-159.41 | Loss |
| 2025-11-28 | $-281.83 | Loss |
| 2025-11-26 | +$392.10 | 🔥 Great Day |
See P/L for each game on a selected day
Select a date above to see game-by-game breakdown
Select a date and matchup to see player prop performance
Select a date and game above to analyze player prop performance
CURRENT STREAK
LONGEST WIN STREAK
MAX DRAWDOWN
AVG WIN vs AVG LOSS
Key metrics for evaluating betting performance
Hedge fund-style analytics tracking betting performance across multiple dimensions.